Claim: There is a 26% chance of a direct military clash between Russia and NATO this year, according to Polymarket.
Verdict: Unverified (50% confidence)
Explanation: The search results do not provide any direct evidence confirming or denying the specific claim about a 26% chance of a military clash between Russia and NATO according to Polymarket. While several sources discuss various prediction markets on Polymarket, none specifically address this particular prediction or its probability. Without a source explicitly confirming the 26% figure or the context of this prediction, the claim remains unverified.